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Things are looking up! Rates may be coming down

Happy Market Update!

Thanks for giving me grace for not sending a newsletter last week. I’ll be honest, it was not a good week for me. Ever have one of those weeks when finances just don’t go well for you? Well, me too. I won’t get too deep into it other than to say, it was not a pretty week…but a week to learn a lesson (or two) from. Yes, I’m not starving, and it’s not a good use of the phrase “first world problems”, mainly because I don’t believe this is a first world country anymore. But just know, when you are feeling stressed about money, you are not ever alone. And you can always call me. I’ll listen. I am a man, so there is a good chance I’ll have an opinion on what to do to fix it. So ladies, don’t get mad at me. It’s in my DNA.


Latest update on Jackson? No football to play. He’s decided that tackle football outweighs flag football. While I tend to agree, I’m pretty sure his head is still a bit too soft for crunching it against someone else’s head. To be clear, he is hardheaded…stubborn I mean. But that won’t protect the brain inside. And as you know, he does not get any of that stubbornness from me. But don’t fret. He is still in swim competitions and Jiu Jitsu. I am trying to create the ultimate fighter. This way when he is 15, and decides he can do whatever he wants…and I remind him in an obligatory manor that it won’t happen while he is under my roof…he can threaten a 60 year old man. He goes to church, so he should feel some remorse about even thinking about doing it! Haha. Meanwhile, I will quietly continue to build my frame like a linebacker and remember my boxing training as that time comes. At this point everyone is wondering what in God’s name is going to go on between Jackson and Dad?! I learn from my elders…and I remember being a 15 year old, to some degree. This is how I view Jackson in the future:

Regardless, I’m building a man. He doesn’t like it yet…unless you tell him he isn’t one. Why? Because I watch a lot of geo-political stuff around the world. And I see a lot of people not acting like adults and not acting like men / women. Have some responsibility for Christ’s sake. And yes, this is going to be my opinion on a few things. Like it or not, this is not emotional…this is how I see it.


First up! I enjoyed this headline. Do people honestly think that Biden can hide?

While I feel that Biden is not the leader of the free world, he can be hidden like he's one. But no need to worry about him hiding! Here he is...

While he sleeps on the beach in the middle of the day, let me tell you about a poll in this country about feeling safer. According to a poll by American Pulse Research, "55% of Americans say the world is less safe since Biden took office.” That should be no surprise, but did you know that 25% of Americans…1/4th of all Americans polled, actually believe the world is safer. SAFER?! What dope are they smoking? I clearly need some of that. Here is a snapshot of them just before answering the phone…

Meanwhile, The Swamp never fails to impress me. Just when you thought that the politicians couldn’t agree on anything, they do! And yes, you guessed it…it was about using more of YOUR money. Specifically, for themselves. So this is old news…but just coming out now. Why old? Apparently, this was pushed through just before the left gave the House to the right (meaning Jan of this year). I guess they DO understand inflation. They just don’t care that it happens to you too. As a mortgage lender, I could use a $34,000 allowance for room and board. How about you?

How about the overall B.S. that is DC? Let’s have a look at jobs. The jobs report came out last Friday. The 2nd line shows there was a forecast of 180k jobs, but it came in short at 150k. But that’s not the amazing thing. The revisions from last month’s blowout report moved the number down over 10%. OVER 10%! Imagine if you were that wrong at your job. You’d be participating in the higher unemployment numbers. But hey, it’s the government…and as long as we pay taxes, they will keep paying morons to “work”. Before you send me hate mail, I didn’t say all government employees are morons. Reread it if you felt anger towards me. Then go get a beer. August was revised down by 62k. So between August and September, we revised jobs down over 100k. Don’t tell me that’s a mistake. Markets react to headlines…and that’s exactly what the jobs government data is doing. B.S.-ing us and then quietly trying to correct it. Don’t believe me? Go look for yourself: https://www.bls.gov/


We also see a tick up of the unemployment rate to 3.9%. While that doesn’t seem high, it’s 0.5% higher than the low back in April of this month. This is a sign of recession as the unemployment number starts ticking up. Usually, it means we are already in the recession. One last note, I see the participation rate dipped down again…that means less people who should and could be working are not even trying. Sweet. My taxes have to work harder now. Yours too.

Was 50 speaking about overseas conflicts? Or Bidenomics? Both? (I don’t add more here because this is not a culture newsletter.) Well, if he said one or the other, he’d be wrong. It’s both! What I like about all the research I do is if I wait long enough and read enough, I’m going to find people starting to agree with me. The problem is that it’s too little, too late. This is an article from Yahoo Finance just this morning.

And the unemployment rate is at it’s highest dating back to Feb 22 when we were at 4%.

See that definitive move up? It’s the red arrow, people. So what does it look like further back? Going back to 1982 (as far back as this Fed goes), you can see we go below, then we break above “0”, and we have a recession. Some economists think we will avoid a recession. Why? I’ll ask again, why in the hell would you suggest that? Because people are still spending? Who cares? We always spend up to the end. Otherwise, the end would be sooner, right? Once again, “authorities” creating a false narrative. Why wouldn’t you just tell people, hey, it’s coming. The sooner we stop over spending, the sooner we can get that down turn over with…and hey, maybe it wouldn’t be as bad?


10yr: Long way to go down. But have we peaked? We are at our lowest levels in weeks…but it’s a long way to the bottom if you wanna get a lower rate. (Read again, but with Brian Johnson of ACDC’s voice.) We are at a level of support that, if broken, should allow us to move down to the upper 4.30s. I never thought I would be happy about that…but here we are. Let’s see if any of these headwinds above help us with the rates. If you need to consider debt consolidation, we are your peeps! Give us a call. (shameless plug)


MBS: Yes! That is a smiley face. At least for now. But we’ve got to stay above these colored moving average lines…and try to get above the other ones. Remember, a MBS move up is an interest rate move down. 6 month chart showing just how far we need to go. The 2 year chart would make you sick to your stomach. So I’ll reserve that for now. If you throw up, I’ll throw up, we’ll all throw up…it’ll be anarchy!

Leaders are people who actually lead. I just don’t see that on either side of the aisle in DC. And with that, they continue to spend our money. Why do we continue to vote? To try and vote for the least bad? Maybe that was always a reason. But I’ve had just about enough. If we find out that a lot of the people crossing the southern border have moved into sleeper cells around the country, it’s going to get ugly. We probably should talk more about that…because if something blows up, it’s going to impact markets and finance, and thus this newsletter. It’s okay to take ownership in something you screwed up. I have to do it. I require my team to do it. We should require our leaders here to do it. So I hope you voted today for something you believed in…not just, well, this is less bad. Next year on this day, we are going to see some serious sh…stuff. I truly believe that the next 12 months are going to set people apart form others. Let’s understand them with some grace, but stand tall in our opinions. More to come on that over the next 12 months. I’m getting better at grace…I pray for it daily. But I’m also getting louder…and I’m really, REALLY enjoying that part of life.


What doesn’t kill us, makes us stronger.


Tim


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