Lie About Jobs? That's a paddlin'

Happy Market Update! 

Jackson is on a point system. Not by me…I do not have time to come up with something so impressive. And yes, you are right…I am not that creative. Hell, I didn’t even know there were 7 prime colors until the past year. Anyway, it’s kindergarten. They are attached to an app that tracks progress and he can or cannot be awarded points for all types of things. Maybe we called them gold stars when we were kid? But if I did something bad, I did not get my gold star removed. Nope…I lived in the deep south as Gen X. We got sent to the principal who then passed us on to the gym teacher for the “paddle”. 

Anyone out there remember that? Sidebar time: most of my readers know I grew up in a household that was very physically abusive (I’m fine…don’t send me flowers). That’s just how it was in the 70s and 80s (that’s what I tell myself). Anyway, one day in 4th or 5th grade, we were playing flag football. Some kid blindsided me (some of you will know this as to be the Heinz Ward move that is not a penalty in the NFL). As it turned out, it was a kid that I didn’t see eye to eye with. So I did the most appropriate thing in those days: I dusted myself off, walked over to him, and drop my fist into his left eye. 

Well anyway, this wimp starts crying. Big man on campus when you are blindsiding someone without the ball, huh? Okay, Tim. Calm down. This was literally 40 years ago. Okay, well, as you might imagine…I heard the following:

Good news! The coach knew our daily confrontation, so for the blindside, he was getting one. Excellent, seeing as how I was getting two for the punch (I’d do it again today…to someone my age not a 10 year old, calm down people). Anyway, this poor kid just started wailing. I mean, you would think he was a teenager on a campground in the middle of a storm with a knife murderer running around. Well this went one for what seemed like an hour because, you see, the paddle was not there. He sent another kid to go get it out of his office. So while we waited, I stood there and he kept getting louder and louder. I imagine people driving by probably thought, “welp, there’s another ass whopping at school. Damn kids.” The paddle arrives, and he asks who will go first. Well you all know the kid screaming is not going to volunteer…I walked over, bent over to grab my ankles and I hear, “Hey (insert kid name), why can’t you be more like Lindsey?” That phrase echoes in my head to this day. Well, coach, you know why? Because that was probably the first time he was getting disciplined this way. I took my two, and he finally got his one. Then we were told to shake hands, and go walk it off. That’s it. So yeah, that probably helps explain a bit about how I am. That other kid? I don’t know…but I imagine that with his criminal record of blindsiding people, he is probably not doing well in life.

My point here is that I wonder if a point system is going to get it done. The life experiences I did not like have made me hardened for sure. Good or bad? You decide. I encourage him to get more points because I am trying to be a better Dad than mine was at this age. But there is something to be said about correcting without “timeouts”. My 5 year old smiles at that. So future parents out there, that does not work either. And if they get ice cream every time, then they will have diabetes later on…or right away. So that won’t work either. I digress as usual, but I wanted to explain that when something wrong is done, there should be consequences. But not if you are in The SWAMP!! (nice segway)

Let’s just dive right into the action at hand. The largest news to come out this week? Well, I first read it on @zerohedge this past Sunday:

Wait, what? 1 millions jobs to be revised down? These are the same jobs that DC has been stomping ground about and how it’s been the best job growth in history? And by the way, do I need to reference my rants about hos the jobs are full of crap? Part time versus full time, for example? But maybe @zerohedge is wrong. And then Bloomberg posts this on Tuesday:

Well, that appears to confirm it. I like the second bullet point. It says, yeah, we are going to lose million jobs THAT THEY LIED ABOUT, but it’s fine. Keep going on like you have been going on. Here is something you homebuyers out there will want to hear from me directly, seeing as how I own a mortgage company. If they had been honest about this, we would not have had long term interest rates this high for so long. So for those of you who had to get a rate in the 7s or even low 8s, they cost you money with their lies. Yes, I believe these real numbers being out would have not pushed stocks or rates up as high. I know we like our 401ks, but some people are barely able to make payments with the inflation AND the high rates (which helps cause inflation). But okay…it says up to 1m. Maybe it won’t be as bad as we think…

Well thanks to @nod008 for this print out. 818000 jobs removed. Close enough to me for 1M. And the markets didn’t flinch. Because, I imagine, the larger institutions knew it already. Hell, we’ve been arguing about it in this small newsletter. But that’s not really the problem here. The real problem is what CAN we actually believe now? Why even bother putting out reports? There’s a larger problem too…in my opinion…read on. By the way, this is an update through March 2024. It’s almost September. So what about the past 5 months? Oh boy…

What is the BLS? It’s the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And who runs that? The Department of Labor. And you know what? The Department of Labor Secretary is a Cabinet Position. There are 15 cabinet positions. That’s how close this information is to the top executives to this country. This is not a democrat or republican or libertarian argument. There just happens to be a Dem in office. So how in the hell do they not know about this? My belief is that they were all in on it together. Try to dissuade me otherwise. Either they knew about it…or they are that blind. Either way, these people are running our country. My God. Help us.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment continues to move sideways at low levels. You think it worsens when people finally get wind of these jobs lies? More layoffs heard this week. But it’s fine. Keep playing your video games and eating Cheetos. 

Here is an example of layoffs…this was out Monday and while 1000 may not seem like a lot, these are typically well paying jobs that won’t be adding revenue to other industries when they can’t go out to eat, or buy and excess in groceries, etc.

Speaking about eating out, here is another chart from our friend NOD that I stole. This speaks volumes! We are finally not spending as much money out and had the largest decrease last month since the “pandemic”? I went to get lunch at Chipotle this week twice, and both times at the height of the lunch rush. This one happens to be across the street from a huge campus of Charles Schwab. Empty. I mean, scary empty for 12:15 in the afternoon. Are we finally running out of money? A burrito should not cost $20.

10yr: This is the last year of a daily candlestick chart of the 10yr yield. Down means lower rates. You can see that last fall, yuck! High rates (that probably could have been prevented if we thought jobs were not doing well then). We are sitting at the lowest levels in the past year. But we really need to make a dent to the downside. How didn’t the revision of negative jobs help? I am lost for words…and annoyed.

MBS: This is the last year of a daily candlestick chart of the mortgage-backed securities coupon of 5.5. Up means lower rates. My concern here is that we are possibly “double topping” and that could mean a move back down, and higher rates. Yuck! We need to break above this and hope we formed a base the past 9 months. Bases usually support moves to the upside (lower rates).

Quick note, yes, I believe the next one or two interest rate cuts are already built into the long term charts. So I would not expect a huge move down in rates when they move next month. If you want to home shop, go now before the crowd figures it out. (And yes, we are happy to help!) There could be more lies out there from DC to surface which might help rates…I will keep you updated. My guess is these people did not get the paddle at school…or probably often at home. I did. And I run a respectful business that owns its successes AND mistakes. Perhaps it’s time to think about how to handle these people the old timey way. Paddling is too good. Tar and feather…yeah, I can get down with that.

What does not kill you makes you stronger.

Tim