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Happy Easter!

Happy Market Update!

It’s the week of Easter, and in my world that means Church and egg hunts! Here at Bear Mortgage, we’ve already done our egg hunt from the corporate office. If you are not an Easter person, that’s okay. Egg hunts are for everyone! So plan on it next year. Anyway, this year we had 300 people show up. We had 600 RSVP’s for yes…so holy cow…we probably got lucky with the 300. Here is a view of about ½ of those people.


I mean check this out. The below picture is one view down the sidewalk with people lining up. Wanna know how stupid I am? Yes, I know you do. And I am an open book. So listen to this. I’m up on the hill there trying to direct traffic. You know, 5 and up to the left, 4 and under to the right…that kind of thing. Lot’s of talking, but I can be pretty loud and commanding when I want. What you don’t see are all the amazing Bear Mortgage team and loan officers keeping these kids from hunting early for golden eggs and stealing eggs near the sidewalk. Thanks to all Bear Mortgage for the help! Anyway, I start giving directions about 5 minutes before and I tell people that I am a start on time kind of person. (My team will confirm that this is not a joke. Punctuality is an important characteristic.) So with about 3 minutes to go, I start to give the instructions on how this will go. “Alright everyone. What I’m going to do in 3 minutes is say Ready, Set, and then Go…” And kinds took off!!! In my head, I was like oh sh*t! And for a second I thought, I’ve gotta bring them all back…until I remembered these are kids, and we all know they are not great listeners. So immediately I realize, I have lost all control. That was God’s plan. So I said, jut Go, Go, GO!!!” That way the people who were trying to do the right thing could grab eggs too. Haha. I mean, what kind of a moron says ready, set go, even in an explanation knowing that’s the only thing kids are actually listening for? Me. I’m that kind of moron.



But like Bruce Almighty, I think one of the characteristics God gave me was humor. Even if that’s laughing at myself. And honestly, it was really freaking cute. And, like I said, it’s how God wanted it to go. I highly recommend that you get your friends, family, neighbors, whoever to our 3rd annual Easter Egg Hunt next year. It’s a nice time and it’s all done for community. Thank you to everyone who made it special and inviting. And thank you to all who came out.

 

Meanwhile, even with all this love flying around, we still have to deal with the real world in real time. Last week you may remember that the Fed ended their 2nd meeting for the year. They did hold off on raising or lowering rates, maintaining their stance on “higher for longer”. In fact, at the beginning of the year, there was the projection for 6 or more cuts…and that’s been slashed to 3. Unless we see inflation keep coming down, I’m worried it might get moved to zero for the year. Lot’s of time…but things are not going as they hoped. Take this PCE report from this morning. When you look at the right side of the chart, it does look like core PCE (Fed’s inflation gage) moved down month over month, take a look at the circled line. That is the revision for last month. Much higher than the told us 30 days ago. So what’s this month’s revision going to look like in 30 days? That’s scary…for people who think we will get 3 cuts this year.


But hey, DC will tell us things are great! Why, just look at the final GDP from Q4, that showed a final reading of 3.4%. That’s not bad. But I think a lot of economists are concerned with how much of that growth is the Fed spending. It’s not small…and our national debt is growing more rapidly than it has ever done. Some people will say it’s the next generation’s problem. Well, my young people, they fix Fed spending by raising taxes. How do you feel about taxes at this point? Want those to go higher? DC is out of control. Has been…and they just keep on being out of control.


Why do I give DC such a hard time? I believe they are all liars. You probably do too…or at least 95% of them. Why not the other 5%? Maybe they were drinking buddies with you in college and you don’t WANT to believe they are. Here’s an example of the lies from “DC”. The Phily Fed is now admitting that payrolls have been overstated by at least 800,000. We’ve seen all the revisions, so this is no surprise. The surprise is them coming out and talking about it. This is important because stock and bond prices move on this type of information. Buit don’t take my word for it. If you want to be really bored, look up this page below and read it for yourself. It’s there in black and white.


More changes? Sure! This one coming from Apollo. The New York Fed is now measuring wage inflations differently. The first sentence says it all…inconsistencies will keep rates higher. Don’t think that pivot is coming soon.


How are you, the consumer doing out there? According to the X Acct @GameofTrades_ household excess savings are gone. Ssooo…back to the credit cards, I guess! Record debt with record interest rates…still growing. That makes my stomach turn.


But hey, buying a house isn’t easy either. This map (I love my maps) shows how housing has become expensive all over the country. And if that price goes up, you need more funds to put down (it’s build on percentages if you don’t know how that works). And there is no excess savings for that down payment? Yikes.


I’m sorry about the cost of the home. But honestly, this is why real estate agents say the best time to buy is now. It’s not because they need a commission (which doesn’t hurt). It’s because appreciation is a real thing…and it compounds. Compounding interest is one of my favorite things to talk about. It makes me giddy.



10yr: Markets are closed today, stocks and bonds. So here is a chart in real time without it moving as soon as I snipit! A quick lesson in R and S. R stands for resistance, and S stands for Support. You can clearly see that the orange line is showing as a resistance, keeping the 10yr yield form rising further…but the yellow line is showing support, where it bounces back up. This two lines are converging. When that happens, we should see a breakout to one side…and that will probably give us direction for the foreseeable future. Down means lower rates…so you know how I’ll be praying this Easter.



MBS: Reminder, up here means lower rates. This one is really moving sideways. That’s called a channel. I like that we are above all these colorful lines, as they act as support. But again, it looks like indecision. What’s it waiting on? A recession? The Fed? For me to choke it out? Maybe.



I hope everyone has a nice, enjoyable weekend. Whether you celebrate Easter or not, it’s going to be pleasant in a lot of the country with Spring taking hold. So get outside! Go find an egg hunt (see how I didn’t use Easter there), and get some candy before it melts in the sun. Speaking of the sun, in another week or so, we will have a cosmic event here in our country. Some people are acting like the coming eclipse will be a black swan event. If you are in that camp, first of all, stop acting like you were raised in 1000 BC, and second, then get out and have fun! For me, I understand that the moon crossing in front of the sun impacts only sunlight for a few minutes. So I planning on enjoying this weekend and the ones after the world collapses from Texas see a 100% eclipse event. But if you are freaking out, go ahead and add me as a beneficiary to your assets. I’m happy to take care of those for you. By the way, wanna know why those will look like circles? Because the earth isn’t flat! Let the hate emails arrive into my inbox…

 

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.

Tim

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