Happy Market Update! |
I’ve been asked for an update on Jackson. It’s nice to know that I have almost phased myself out of my own newsletter. But who am I to stop progress? So here goes! It is not football season. |
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Just kidding. Well, it’s not football season…but as you have probably figured out, this jock needs a sport! The energy he has makes me want to wake him up at 4:30am and have him start running suicides. Before you send me hate mail…this is a practice drill involving lines. And if I said I would have him doing lines, well, you’d be turning me over to the authorities. See how I can’t win? And since I’m 50, I get to say what I say. (And that is not because Trump is in office.)
Anyway, he’s taking it very seriously, which is annoying. Why? Basketball is one of my least favorite sports. Well, NBA for sure. Can we play some damn defense? I’ve now watched two games. Keep in mind that these games are kids in 1st grade and kindergarten. So they play as much defense as Lebron: Zip. Nada. Butkus. I mean with NBA scores in the 140s? Give me a break. But I digress. How’s he doing? Here is the first picture I took of him: |
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Okay, that might not be the actual one. I’m still flipping through the phone. But he’s doing well. He runs back quickly, he wants the ball to shoot (so much he hogs it), and he is getting his hands up to block. He’s taller than most of the 1st graders on the other team. So that’s cool. He did have one exciting play. There was a scuffle for the ball between 5 or 6 players. All of the sudden Jackson pops out of the scrum with the ball and takes it on a breakaway! Yes, they have to dribble…most of the time. Anyway, there is no one even close to catching him and he had been practicing for this shot for months. Just when it came time for the layup…..he dribbled it on his foot and it shot out of bounds. Haha. Ugh!!!!! I know…it’s just a game. Well, I saw that look of hostility on his face, and at least two other Dads who apparently thought I had something to do with it, that it happened that way. You tell the kid it’s just a game. He has made a few shots in each game and he’s getting better. So I guess I better get my jersey ready to be signed…Lindsey #31 |
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Well at least Jackson is trying to get better. Those of us living in the world of chaos (see last week) are still seeing chaos in the cards…er…economy. We’ve got a Fed meeting next week (yippy), and based on the jobs reports we have seen, I am forecasting (along with a lot of others) that we will see the Fed hold their Fed Funds Rate steady. One might argue that The CME agrees with me. This chart shows a 99.5% chance they hold their rate steady. So your credit cards and lines of credits will NOT get cheaper this time around. In fact, there is a growing belief that we may not see another move down for ½ the year. |
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Is that going to make Trump happy? Nope. Just today (Thursday), he told a group of elites in Davos that he will demand that rates come down. Demanding is not how this works. The Fed does not report to the executive branch. In fact, one might argue that they don’t really report to anyone. From Reuters: |
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And hey, while we are at it…yes, we have a new President. And he has been busy. I don’t think markets have figured out what to think of this repeat Commander in Chief a 2nd time around. We hear about tariffs and then there is talk they won’t be too bad. But in this same speech, he basically told people overseas to play the game or they will get tariffs added. So it will be their decision? Will this work? From our friends at The Wall Street Journal: |
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Well we know there is an uphill battle for the new administration. I’ve complained about jobs for a long time…so it will be interesting to see the Jan jobs report in early Feb. In the meantime, with a slow week of reporting here in The good ol’ USA, we did get retail last week. The Jan report for December showed a miss on retail sales…during the Christmas season. Yikes. |
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But we still have people employed. Job cuts are still relatively low, according to Apollo. Job cuts in tech are still happening, and I know we are still seeing an exodus from the mortgage and real estate industry. So it must be selective sectors. But overall, Challenger has job cuts on the low end: |
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For the mortgage world, it looks like even Fannie Mae thinks 2025 will be slow. Again. So we are setting up for another rough year in our industry without those lower rates. This too shall pass…but not in slow motion would be appreciated! And yes, that is a snippet I took at 4:40am. See? I am up early! |
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10yr: Ugh! Just when you are hoping we might have turned…brakes! Nope. What a difference a week makes. We are now moving back up in the yield. Zillow thinks the shortage of housing is our largest issue. I say it’s affordability. The Zillow CEO has more money than me. But he’s wrong. Period. |
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MBS: (Up means lower rates) Same here. Headed back up but WAIT! Nope. You can see how this industry toys with our emotions! |
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Sports are important. If you don’t like them, fine. But go outside and move around. If you can’t tell by my newsletters…there is always stress somewhere. We need to find a way to release it so it doesn’t kill us…just make us stronger, right? So the kiddo is active, and I will make sure he stays that way. I will also tell him he is banned from being a loan officer. 100%. This should be an interesting year with the change of an administration who wasted no time trying to change things. It is going to be chaotic no matter if you lean right or left. Let’s all work together for the better of the country. Which brings me to my last point. Elon Musk (what, Tim?). Stick with me. I don’t care if you like him or hate him. If we get 4 years or more of pushing space exploration, we are going to have kids interested in science and math. We are going to build a generation of thinkers looking up to the sky. Reminds me of John F Kennedy’s speech. But innovation is what built this country…and it will get us all back on track. Together. |
What doesn’t kill us makes us stronger. |
Tim |
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