Call me Coach!

Happy Market Update!

Yes, it was a football Saturday for Jackson. And of course, there is always something to write about. Thank God for kids and adults! I don’t know what I’d write about.

And yes, I am still abstaining from coaching. I have not yet gotten to a place where I can understand that these kids are here for fun…or at least, that’s what the parents tell me. But I don’t understand that…and if you spent any time with Jackson, you’d know he is there to win…not to have fun. Now you are all probably judging me about it saying it’s my fault he is like that. Really? The kid wants to see who can blow their nose the fastest. That did not come from me. Probably. Maybe. Anyway…

But I am also not interested in having a disorganized game. And kids on the sidelines should be together, ready to go, and cheering on their teammates. Yes, even the 4-6 year olds. If we are going to get better adults, it’s gotta start with the 4-6 year olds. So I got to the game and walked over to the coaches. I shared that I had coached before and was happy to help corral the kiddos when they come off the field. They thought it was a good idea. Cool, I can help and not be on the field yelling at the ref or trying to get a kid to tell me why they ran left and not right. Perfect. Well, that latest 10 mins.

One of the coaches came over and she asked me to cover for her because, “I am out of my league here. I thought these kids would just run around like in soccer… but something here is different.” You got that right…some of THOSE football parents are a bit nutty. You gotta watch out for them. I wanted to say no thank you, but it felt like everyone was looking at me (probably just Jackson…and that was enough). I said, okay. Sure. Yes, that was my level of enthusiasm. So I went to coach…somehow knowing when I left the house, it would be this way. And I’ve gotten an email since then asking me to cover each week since all of the coaches are brand new. Ugh. What do I do? You and I both know there is only one thing.

Back to the game…we won! Jackson had the ball first, and went the distance for the touchdown! The other team played well too! They had a girl who ran the wrong direction, and then finally reversed to score! I’ve never seen a 150 yard touchdown before! She had some wheels too! So we settled in for a long game. We did win, Jackson scoring the last touchdown to give us a 27-21 final score. I’m pretty sure each team had at least one more touchdown…but I’m not one of THOSE football parents. Probably. Maybe.

And Jackson? Got the only flag in the game. And there were almost two other instances for flags too. Like showboating, for example. He sprinted around after a flag pull like he was TJ Watt sacking…well, QB. He did NOT learn that from me…and with Coach Dad on the field, he got yelled at. Cockiness is not something I will tolerate. But he has got some spirit! So we wait to see for the weather on Saturday morning, and yes, I will be coaching. Sometimes you are called to support the community, and I am not one to turn away.

Speaking of community, it looks like there are less homes coming to a neighborhood near you. This chart is housing starts reported monthly for the entire country. We are near the lower side for sure…while coming into spring/summer. Yes, Feb was strong, but March was considerably lower.

Some of that could be due to the interest rate environment or the inflation rates moving back up. All of that would or at least should weigh on consumers. This chart is the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. You can see that we are nowhere near the highs pre-pandemic, but we are at the highest levels since Covid. Although, we appear to be moving down from last month’s positive revision. If the consumer isn’t happy, we will see that in other forms of information…like retail sales (eventually) and home buying (which is lower due to the record high home affordability – high is not good).

But you are still buying stuff! Retail sales came in stronger than expected this week. That’s two positive numbers back to back after pretty negative month earlier in the year. What are all of you buying? And at THESE levels?

But jobs are still good, right? You look at this and tell me. We have fewer job openings than we did pre-Covid…and are not that far off when everything was closed. Remember those days? Man do I remember driving 110 on the highway going to work when no one was on the highway. Those were the days! Hoping I’m passed the statute of limitations. If not, then this never happened.

Since it’s tax week, I thought this chart would really boil your blood. I’m here in Colorado which, apparently, could be darker. I think this state gets a lot darker with the huge increase we had in property taxes this year. Own the land…but pay takes on something you own already. If you don’t think we still live with Lords, and Kings, and surfs (you reside with the surfs), then you are crazy. Being taxes on something you own…means…you don’t own it. I refuse to believe the sunshine and rainbows…but you know that already.

I like this next chart because I’ve been saying now we won’t have any cuts this year. This is an “implied number of quarter point rate cuts by December of 2024” based on the month they were being forecasted. See how quickly from January until now it drops from 7 to 1.5? I’m sticking with 0 unless there is a greater conflict in the middle east or you all decide, in unison, to stop buying things this summer. And we all know the second one won’t happen.

But the stock market is doing well, right? Maybe. But we might be in a correction too. This chart shows you were we are in the S&P 500 and the number of stocks above their 50 day moving average. So, Tim, what does this mean? It means th number fo stocks over their 50 day dropped quickly. That drags down the markets. But for how long? Only time will tell.

10yr: Clearly an uptrend here. And Vegas tells us, don’t fight the trend. That horizontal 4.70 is a keep resistance line. If it breaks that and we stay above it, we probably go back to the highs of October…near 5%. Yuck. Interest rates have been moving higher since December. I keep seeing notes about rates coming down…and I don’t know what the hell that’s about. Yes, they barely down from their highs last year. But we have been moving up all year.

MBS: Drawing with a mousepad is not easy. So I apologize in advance for this drawing. MBS down mean higher rates. This just confirms the above…rates are moving higher w no end in sight. As I professionally stated before, yuck.

The Fed Chiefs are running around telling everyone the economy is strong. So that means they are preparing us for a move up in rates not down. Let me say that again…they are saying we might see a rate hike before we see a rate cut. Powell this week said inflation was not under control. He did not say those words exactly, but that’s what he is saying. And the other Fed Presidents are saying they are not ready for rate cuts. JP Morgan is now saying there is a higher probability of no rate cuts…like I’ve been saying right here in this newsletter. Why? Because I live in the real world. I don’t live high on a perch looking down on people and making decisions that directly impact you and me. I don’t want to run for office…I also didn’t want to coach. And no, I am not announcing my candidacy for any office. But can anyone out there just stop lying about the situation in this country? You gaslight us until you say, I guess it wasn’t transitory and oops, I guess we may not have hiked rates high enough. And by the way, stop removing important items out of CPI calculations like food and energy. Did you know they don’t count that? Imagine what our CPI would be if they actually reported everything. 3.3 and moving up? More like in the 5s and nowhere near 2%. I just don’t have warm and fuzzies these days…we need a change.

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.

Tim