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Brace Yourself... Summer Is Over

Happy Market Update!

Labor Day. What a strange holiday. The end of summer, but not officially. You can’t wear white after it, not sure why. And of course, the fact that we get a day off for laboring. Gee thanks. First of all, what? Second, plenty of people still work that day. So is Saturday and Sunday each additional Labor Days each week? I just don’t understand it. I’m not saying we should give it up. Sidebar: don’t worry about that. The government wants us to have more days off so we can depend on them more. But I digress. Just call it the unofficial end of summer Day. Or maybe, didn’t drink enough summer cocktails yet? Get those last kegs of beer in you before it’s cold.


While we are on the subject of not working, Jimmy Buffet died this past weekend. His passing is not about him not working anymore. Because summer…vacations…drinking…not working. Anyway, he dies and summer ends. Coincidence? I think not. A moment of silence for him and the number of margaritas that were drank in his honor the past several days.


And yes, before you ask, I did work on Saturday and Sunday. In fact, I did accounting for the business on Sunday. I mean, how am I not living the life, right?! But good news…3 days off, means 3 days of research for this newsletter! I know some of you are about to stop here and not move forward into the chart section. Come on, live a little. It’s not always bad. It’s not depressing. Even bad news has ways to make money. Get creative! You are not creative? Fine. Call your financial planners. They are paid to get creative. The ones running the 401k who promised to speak to you every 6 months…you know, the one you haven’t seen in 4 years? Call that person. Pick one of the below charts and ask them for their feedback.


As they say in the show MXC…let’s get it on!


For all my conspiracy theory friends…not all conspiracies are true. Case in point…the lunar landing! In case you live under a rock, the Russians had a spaceship that crashed into the moon. Since we don’t pollute here enough, let’s add the moon! But the Indians, they managed to land one! And just before they did, they took the below picture of the remaining portion of the lunar module left behind after an Apollo mission lifted off. Conspiracy Theorists: “India is in on it!” Maybe before…but with them a part of BRICS? I don’t see them lying for us.

Just a quick update on BRICS…they are growing. This, in my opinion, is an economic world war that has already begun. It’s hard to read…Red are already members. Green is who applied for membership. Yellow is for expressed interest. This is opposing our dollar. Seems like the World is sick of the USA.

Want another conspiracy? How about this one…The Colorado Buffalos in one week have won as many games as they did all of last year. And they upset a ranked TCU. Now already everyone is saying TCU wasn’t going to be that good. Please. Why were they ranked in the Top 25 then? Listen, I think they were overrated last year while they made their National Runner Up run (and got smoked by Georgia). But you can’t rank them and then say they had new players, some went to the NFL, new this, new that. Nope. Stop stealing the amazing story that unfolded away from CU. Congrats to Deion Sanders. Here is his pregame speech. If this doesn’t get you fired up, nothing well. “We got now.”



How about Oil? I’ve got some slides for you. For those of you who don’t know, SPR stands for Strategic Petroleum Reserve. I’ve gone over this in the past…but I like when I have two charts in one! The red line is the reserve. Biden told us he was releasing barrels to drive our gas prices down. According to the Brent chart (blue line) per barrel, this chart suggests that worked. But while the reserve continued to go down, the price of oil stopped going down. Biden said he would fill it back up when oil hit 70. Well, this shows that did not happen. Now, this chart ends in August. What has happened to oil prices since? Next chart, please.

As the Meme Stock people say, “To the moon!” But you already know this because you buy gas weekly, right? If he buys oil now at $87, he’s buying it for 25% higher than he should. AND, he would drive the price further up (supply and demand). Not good economics.

Why does this matter? Because…61% of all adults are living paycheck to paycheck. This is from a CNBC article. It does say we should see relief. Why would they see relief? Did they get raises? Prices are still rising, just not at the same levels. Inflation has not moved down to deflation. It’s still rising. That’s not relief. That’s a false narrative to people. Gaslighting? You think…I don’t feel relieved. CNBC: Yes you do. Me: But I don’t. CNBC: You do. Me: I guess I do. Hogwash.

Remember, student loans begin again today. People want to blame the Supreme Court (SCOTUS in this chart), but it’s bad policy to tell people they don’t have to pay back bills. I paid mine…yes, it’s sad that an Art History student has $50k in debt. But what parenting told him it would work out? Not in my house. Now this policy will end and payments kick in and that will have defaults…and that’s bad for all of us. So now I’m supposed to care about it? Shame on people who felt their obligations were not their obligations. They are the reason.

But once again, “Tim, stocks are doing well”. Okay, here’s another reason to think , uh-oh. ATH = all time high. What’s a buyback? That’s when a corporation spends money to buy their stock back. This shrinks the supply and indicates false demand. What happens? Prices rise! Good for you if you have the stock. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the company is doing well.

And yes, employment is softening. Once I have two charts in one. I’m giddy about it! Markets bottom after unemployment rate rises. AFTER.

Why does that matter? This one from CNN. So it has begun. It went up from 3.5% to 3.8%. Long way to go. Yes, the participation rate went up…but I think that’s because the stimulus money has finally run out…and just in time for student loan repayment.

That’s a lot for a short week…and yes, I have enough for 3 of these newsletters. I’ll leave you with this (before my ending charts):


10yr: Ugh! Where are you going? Stop going up! Conversations this month are about a pause, pivot, or increase from the Fed. I think the long term bonds, like our 10yr here, think there is another 25 coming. They did tell us one or maybe two left. Are we running out of steam? Will the jobs report tell them to pause this month? What happens at the next meeting at the end of October? So many questions. I’ll give you the answers…but I’m running out of time to finish this newsletter. Haha

MBS: I don’t like this chart either. Back under the 25DMA…dang it! (Down means higher rates.) Sigh…it’s been a long year in this mortgage industry.

Maybe I don’t like Labor Day because I chose a profession that doesn’t really ever get a day off. Fine. That’s my problem. Then student loans are their problems. See how that plays out? But I will tell you this…I hate over 90- degree weather. It doesn’t like me. And these damn bees that kamikaze my head? Damn you. I’m not sweet. Trust me. Enough already. Let’s get some cold rain coming down. Whatever! You’ve got a sweater. I can’t take skin off. Well I could, but me walking around in just bones, muscles, and blood? I’m sure that’s offending someone. Know what offends me? No, not everything. (eye roll) I know it seems like that. No, what really chaps my hide are people who blame others for their problems. Most people said Deion couldn’t pull off what he is already started. Know why? His kids bought in. You should buy in. It doesn’t have to be my newsletter…but let’s get more info than that TikTok dance market strategy. Whoa…ending on a rant. Nice, Tim.


What doesn’t kill us, makes us stronger.


Tim

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