Happy Market Update!
I’d like to take a minute and send our love to the people of Maui. I’m sorry for your losses. Unless someone has a loss like this, they do not understand…no matter what they try to say. I sure as hell don’t know it. I’m reading how kids were sent home by themselves into the fires. There are really no words, and it just makes me sick to my stomach. We have a huge leadership problem in this country. It needs to end. How much more loss and chaos do we need? This has gone on long enough.
And our top leadership, taking a minute from his vacation…gee thanks…didn’t help yesterday either. (Has he even been to Ohio yet?) I know a lot of people complain about every president, but can we all agree that we need someone who at least pretends to care? Hawaii is a heavily left leaning state, and you should hear the complaints from people living there about the left leadership (local and national). Justified in my opinion. Regardless, we sent money to “boots on the ground” people in Maui. Please consider doing the same if you can help. Here is where we sent money: https://www.nativehawaiianphilanthropy.org/mauiwildfires. I trust the people who recommended this to me.
While we are complaining…I found it ironic that a hurricane named Hilary stormed through California. I’m not trying to get political or lean right (you should know by now I lean fiscally to the right because I like to not be broke), I just thought it was humorous (in a dark way, yes). I mean, what if Hurricane Hilary had hit the right leaning state of Texas? Imagine the memes and gifs with that one. But our hearts and prayers go out to the flooding there as well. I’m not going to get into a climate change conversation. But perhaps…just maybe…this is more of a reason to come together than to continue to separate (like our supreme leader promised…and lied about…when he ran for President).
What else separates us? Sports! It does bring us together…but then we take sides. I am a huge college football fan (NFL is a distant 2nd), and with all the changes in power conferences, it’s like the opposite side of the country is your neighbor. I’m all for capitalism, but I’m also for local rivalries. You now have UCLA traveling to Rutgers for a football game. (For those who don’t know, UCLA is in southern Cal while Rutgers is in New Jersey.) These kids, in all sports, will now fly red eye to play? This is just stupid. And while we are on the subject of stupid, how about the NFL fining a linebacker $43k for a tackle? Here is a twitter clip of the 10 seconds.
I understand head injuries, but this is just a tackle. Give me a break. If Roger wants them to dance in the end zones and not tackle, then maybe he should be CEO of Broadway. Hey NFL, get rid of Goodell. You are ruining the sport.
Okay, that’s a lot of writing without charts, memes, or gifs. That’s really why you are here, yes? I’ll try and do better…
Let’s chat mortgages. This is a view of the average rate of the 30yr from Freddie Mac. This is from last week, and yes, things got worse this week. What’s missing? The average buy down or discount costs. But I think this chart looks ugly enough anyway. This is why people don’t want to list their home right now. Look at that straight up? But hey, at least is isn’t as bad as the 70-80s. (yet)
What are you spending your money on since you have that low-low mortgage rate in the 2s or 3s? Here you go. Have you bought a car recently? I haven’t done that either. Why? Same reason as mortgages…yuck! Some people are though. What’s noticeable is that flat student loan (gray line). But that’s about to change. Yeah, inflation isn’t over. Jerome Powell will tell us more this week.
Why Powell this week? Jackson Hole! I’m still waiting on my invite so I can book a private jet and fly there (obviously to NOT talk about climate change). I’m sure Jamie Dimon will have some great insights for us. But it’s really Powell we need to hear from. IF he mentions inflation is still NOT under control, that means rate hikes and that means ugliness in rates and some sectors of stocks. Call your FA…they have ideas on where to move your retirement money rather than just watch it go down in the wrong sectors. See Dave and Eric? I can be Bullish!
Of all my charts, this one is my most bullish. Our appetite for fresh chili pepper has been increasing and now…and thank God…this year’s harvest looks to be successful. Finally, Tim. Some good news. Thanks (he said to himself).
You like the bearish? Okay…check out this chart. D.T. = double top. See how this chart goes up…down and then back up to roughly the same area? That’s a bearish signal. My students and colleagues will tell you it’s setting up for an “M for Murder”. That warms my heart. People do listen to me. Sometimes. If you don’t know, FANG = Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Google. This chart is not good for tech.
This one makes me the angriest. How come China gets to have low 10yrs? My counterpart in China is just loving everything about his job…until the communist take everything away to disperse it to the other people…yeah right. To the politicians, is more like it. Long live, America! P.S. They get low rates because their economy is screwed.
I’m not gonna lie. This next chart is here because the first time I read it, I read it to say Burritos gains gone…and I was absolutely losing my…well, you know. Nothing to say other than to tell you how my brain works. What? You are surprised? It’s messy in there.
And before I leave you with my final charts and thoughts, I wanted to put this map in. This is absolutely ridiculous. Only 17 states guarantee a personal finance course for high school. I didn’t learn anything, so this is not a surprise. But I have been out of high school for…er…well…I don’t want to tell you. But let’s say there was no internet and mullets were all the rage (pre-2023 mullet craze). And it’s taken this long to just get to 17? And my state isn’t one of them. Listen, this is serious stuff people need to learn. They can get the right education, or they can “learn” this from social media (with people dancing to it no less) or me…just as scary. Stupid stupid stupid. The more we learn about finance, the less government can control us. And I am all for that.
10yr: Remember that murder thing? (sigh) The double top? This looks like it might be there too. That would be…AWESOME. But I’m not holding my breath just yet. We’ve been fooled before. So let’s see how this carries through this week, Powell’s speech, and into the end of the month.
MBS: So is this a double bottom then? That’s “W for Winning”. Remember up here means lower rates. Time will tell…and I will pray in the meantime.
I know we like to have some fun, and by fun I mean, scare the crap out of everyone each week. But again, protecting what is ours is my top priority. Please consider giving to Maui. It doesn’t have to be my link. Just give. Here in the mortgage world money is no longer abundant…and I still gave. Why? Because my life is way better than anyone who just lost a home, clothes, cars, jobs…and yes, a kid. Horrific. Maui, you have people who are here that will support you. Because a country may be divided on politics, but we should not be divided on giving.
What does not kill you, makes you stronger.