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This Too Shall Pass

Updated: Aug 31, 2023

Happy Market Update!

Mid July is a somber time for me. My father was born on July 10th and he passed on July 19th. So for about 3 weeks in the middle of July, I spend more time thinking about the past than any other time in the year (my birthday is also this month which does not help). We had a tumultuous relationship at best. But he tried the last 5 or 6 years. The last 2, I got to watch Leukemia take him slowly. It’s a miserable experience watching cancer take someone from you. I pray for any of you that have had to deal with this experience. He spent the last 6 months in the hospital, the last several weeks at MD Anderson in Houston, Texas. That’s never a good sign.

The last few nights he was on ventilators and not communicating much. Sometime just after breakfast, the doctor came in and told Carl’s new wife, my brother and me that he was living because the machine was keeping him alive. His recommendation was to let him go. This was the last time I ate for days. I can’t even eat breakfast now. In the end, we believed the doctor, who was the expert in the room, and we decided to detach his life support. I will never know for sure if that was the right or wrong thing to do. Once decided, we all got one on one time. And he knew. As I spoke to him, he squeezed my hand. How terrifying that must have been for him. I get to think about that until I die. It’s a struggle sometimes, especially on July 19th. Again, I pray for all of you who have been down this path. Know that you are not alone, and I understand the struggle on July 19th, 2009 and each July 19th since. I know it’s the circle of life, but to be the one to decide that without knowing for sure it’s right, is tough. He wasn’t an enemy trying to take my freedom. He was and is my father. He was 58.

Today, at almost 49 years old, I am blessed to be a father. Let this be known…it’s not fair for him to have to decide my fate. It is not his cross to carry. Jackson, you are not required to decide that if you don’t want to.

But 58 is less than a decade away for me, and I think about that a lot. I am not afraid to die. I’m afraid to leave my kid fatherless. So my life insurance is in place, like a good father. Luckily, I believe I will live to be 150 because I believe God wants me to work for 100 years. Sorry, trying to bring some humor to this post, especially because you can see the charts below. Listen, don’t be sad. Go celebrate the people around you and know they do not have time. None of us do. You know who else doesn’t? This market! (what a segway, Tim!)

In the meantime, we need to protect ourselves and our legacy, right? That’s why I’m here for you!

Check out this chart implying our impending doom. Each time Federal Government Receipts crosses negative, we are in a recession already, except for this time. Or is this a chart that gets updated later? Quite the collapse in the past year, wouldn’t you say?

We are getting earnings for banks right now. JP Morgan showed strength! Well, duh. Let’s remember they got to buy a bank earlier this year at a discount. And the Fed covers losses. Sssoo….yeah. Here is what the flows into large banks looks like. Notice how it was moving down until the spring when the shortest ever bank crisis began and ended. Too big to fail was a problem back in the housing crisis, as I recall.

How is the low versus high interest rate environment impacting us? According to Redfin, “Only 1% of US homes have changed hands so far this year”. That would be the lowest in over a decade, again, according to Redfin. Chart? You know it! This is the housing turnover rate per 1000 properties. Look at that steep decline.

Either way you carve it, most Fund managers think there is a GLOBAL recession coming…according to this chart half think this is before March of 2024. So does that mean it’s already begun now? Because you need 2 negative quarters of GDP, right? Or no because of last year? Bah Humbug. It’s 2 and I’m sticking with my education on this one.

This one terrifies me the most out of this week’s charts. This suggests that US individuals are bullish (and you can get a sense of that on FinTwit), but institutions are bearish? That tells me institutions are going short and they have a lot more money than you. Okay, maybe not short. But they aren’t buying…so is a turn coming? Time will tell.

10yr: So we moved up and then back down into our downward trend line. So that’s good to know. But it sure look like we are going to squeeze right into that triangle. That will typically move quickly one way or another. It looks like strength in the yield, so I hate to say it, but I think it moves up. For how long? That will depend on the economy. Feds meet in 2 weeks and we get 1st look at Q2 GDP. I think both of those move rates further up. God help us.

MBS: Good day last week after inflation numbers came in. We’ve run into some resistance in the multi-color lines (those are moving averages). If we can get above those, then…to the moon? Higher MBS means lower rates. Fingers crossed.

Before you think I am having some meltdown, know that I am. Just kidding. Sort of. This too shall pass. And if you are struggling with something, remember it will pass too. I gave a speech when I graduated from Northwestern where I told classmates that if they were in a challenging moment to remember what it took to get across that stage for that diploma. We were adult students working full time (some of us working 60-80 hour weeks and night school). Sometimes I have to remember my own words. Damn it. This too shall pass.

What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.

Tim Lindsey

President/Sr. Loan Officer

Bear Mortgage Inc.

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