Updated: Aug 31
Happy Market Update!
First, I’d like to take a moment and thank our vets, alive and passed, for their courage to defend our country. I come from a long line of people in the military, including my brother who served in the reserves. I am the only one on my Father’s side who did not serve. Not for trying, as I did apply for an ROTC scholarship into the navy but was denied. I could have enlisted but opted to pursue college out of high school. If you know my story, that too did not go well either.
Regardless, as I sit here on Memorial Day 2023, I am reminded of the stories passed down in my family. If you have not had a chance to hear yours, you should ask. There are some great and horrible stories. But it’s important to remember the lives lost to defend your rights to speak your mind, have your religious beliefs, and yes, to defend those rights (and others) should it become necessary. I am a patriot to this country and shall always be. This weekend, I flew the 13 Stars and Stripes as a reminder to my family and neighbors that once upon a time we did something great. We can do it again. Thank you, Vets. And I pray for those lost souls who went before us to defend Freedom. Thank you.
For those of you who might think I’m tripping waiving that flag at the house, hold on for this news article. The legalization of psychedelic mushrooms advances in…where else, California. I don’t spend a lot of time on culture, but just so I understand…defund police and legalize more drugs? Has anyone seen the streets of San Francisco or Philadelphia lately? There are some rough places everywhere, I know. But some of these cities can’t take much more chaos. I’m no doctor, but I have to think that maybe right now isn’t the time to be legalizing more drugs. Source:
Meanwhile, over the weekend, it seems that Biden and McCarthy have come to terms on the debt ceiling. From what I can tell, this would raise the debt ceiling by $4T (that’s a T). Some good news? It would cut $10B (that’s a B) from the earmarked money that the IRS was going to use to chase us for more taxes (in my humble opinion). So I guess they only get $70B now. I’m sure they will lose some of that too (like the Defense department does regularly). Here’s the thing…they have to get this passed in the House and Senate. This is just more BS. Pretend like it’s some big deal, and then strike a deal in the 11th hour. This is why I didn’t get all worked up. This happens every freaking time. There is no personal responsibility in DC. What an absolute joke. Source: everywhere.
Meanwhile, interest rates for housing continue to rise. It will be interesting to see how the markets, Stocks and Bonds, react to this news throughout the week. And we get the May jobs report on Friday. Our jobs here in mortgage…never boring! F is for the forecasted number, while P is for the previous, unrevised, number. (They always revise the numbers when they post.) Jobs are expected to still be a respectful 180k created (near bottom of chart).
But yes, there is still a lot showing recession (here or near). Here are several graphs telling you to save some dough.
First up, Real GDI (Gross Domestic Income): When we drop below 0, recessions come.
GDP is slowing, quarter over quarter. The last three, from the recession last year that the powers to be ignore, 3.2% to 2.6% to 1.3%. I’m no math major (I majored in Poli Sci) but that seems to be moving in the wrong direction. (P.S. I am really good at math.)
Leading Indicators…this is one of my favorite new charts. The Fed can’t save us (and honestly, they don’t want to). They are clear on causing a recession. Inflation actually moved up in April, so how are they helping? Anyway, this clearly indicates that when leading indicators drop below 0, we get a recession. I see how this would indicate we did not have a recession last year when our GDP was negative for 2 quarters. But they can’t use this chart when we roll into the next one. A lot of speculation that we are already in one. How long is the new question…
10yr: Remember this up, means higher rates, typically. This candlestick is known as a spinning top. (Each day is a candlestick in this chart.) They generally show up in a trend reversal. This past Friday, (the last candle) actually moved down…confirming the spinning top. All of this to say, it’s a good sign for lower rates. Fingers crossed.
MBS: Remember down is bad for rates. So the past 2 weeks has been ugly. But look at that last candlestick. (Each day is a candlestick in this chart.) That’s called a hammer. It’s a bullish candle. What’s that mean? It typically means that the down trend is tired and should move up. Thus, this is a positive sign for our world in mortgages…that rates may improve soon.
Thanks again to all those who died to protect our Freedom. We may not be a perfect country, but we have the tools and the rights to try to do better. Let’s start acting like it. We owe those men and women who died for us.
I recently bought a shirt that says, “Patriotism is not illegal.” Damn straight I am wearing it today.
Originating Branch Manager