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Time to Pay the Piper?

Updated: Aug 31, 2023

Happy Market Update!

Okay, last week I went off about income taxes. Obviously, I did not get a refund. Today will not be about income taxes. So you can take off the seatbelt.

Hold on! Put it back on! Property taxes! And don’t even get me started on taxes for personal property that's already owned AND paid for…that sits in a leased office. Apologies to my team who have heard about this for years. It never ends. But I digress…

GDP came out this morning. Forecasts were for 2.0% and it came in at almost half: 1.1%. Ouch!! The below chart will make more sense in 2 years when the giant GDP moves from Covid shutdown to partial reopen, goes away. The two negative in 2021? Well, that’s the former definition of a recession. But since we changed it, we don’t care. (ahem!) But wait! We counted it in 2020 when Q1 and Q2 were negative. Whatever the “leadership” decides, the “leadership” gets. There is a noticeable move down over the past 3 (including today’s Q1 report). Will the next two months of updated Q1 turn us negative? Time will tell. But there are a lot of people (like me) pointing out retail sales are dropping (even with inflated prices built in).

Here’s a quote for everyone: “Sell in May, go away.” This is a saying on Wall St. I believe it comes from the days when traders would sell everything off and head to The Hamptons for the summer. The summer? I think I had 8 consecutive days off once in 2019. That would be the longest since my high school days. If they are right, we should see some lower stock prices, and we here at Bear Mortgage would like to see that priced in to the bond market (which would help interest rates). We get a Fed meeting next week and a jobs report. Buckle up again! Beginning of the month is usually heavy with data (and don’t forget it’s earnings’ season). I went ahead and marked what we think is more important…

All of these things impact sentiment which can help give a peak to a possible May selloff. This is due to how it drives sentiment. This is from Bank of America. It shows that our growth expectations shrinking. The Oct '22 circle (which the line appears to be headed for again) is the lowest in the stock market from last year. Headed there again? I think yes. Why? The chart says so.

Last recession talk for now…this chart! Even the NY Fed is on board with a recession now. And if you see the gray lines…those are recessions that always come after the line graph being this elevated. So this would indicate that it can’t be stopped. If you are like me…then we have been in one already. Stimulus money propped us up…only to delay the inevitable. Thanks, Gov! We have a saying in our world: Sallow the toad. That means to the hard thing first to get it over with in your day. I guess the Fed doesn’t know that one. Anyone know how to get Powell to subscribe to this newsletter?

Somebody check on this dog. (FYI – that’s us)

10yr: Enough with the sideways move. We know you want to go down. So just go down, candlestick! Are you too good to go down? (voice of Happy Gilmore) This is a day that thinks GDP still shows inflation…and that the Fed will raise next week. I think so too…25bps. I keep getting older, and the Fed just stays the same course… Pump the brakes, for the love of God!

MBS: This damn thing will just not go up. MBS up =- lower rates. It’s coming folks. It will get here. Maybe May will be the start.

Don’t call your financial advisors and tell them I’m giving you advice and you want to liquidate your portfolios. None of this is financial advice…other than to say maybe lock your interest rates in mortgages (where I am licensed). But there is relief coming. It’s been a slow go because DC thinks they can some how keep this from being a real problem. Well, show me one of those guys who ran a successful business, and I’ll show you how long they have been at the helm of the country’s worst business, this country. We have got to get someone who can help correct this before Pompeii goes off and immortalizes us in stone. For you young people, that’s a reference for the beginning of the end of Rome. I know it didn’t do it. I need something dramatic to end with. Let’s try this. Keep saving your money. It will be oaky, but I believe it gets worse before it gets better. If that doesn’t scare you, I can’t help you. No one can. Your homes will be fine…us mortgage people didn’t do it this time. Terrible government policies will ALWAYS pay the piper.

Tim Lindsey

Originating Branch Manager

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