Updated: Aug 31
Happy Market Update!
I just love the week IRS taxes are due. Wait, that doesn’t sound right. Let’s try that again. I just love sending even more money to the government. No…that’s not it either. How about this, leave me alone, government! Aaahhhh. That feels better.
Well, yes, if you paid taxes, you made money. That’s your silver lining. That makes me feel better about 0% of the time. I see no “Tim Lindsey Dr”. Let’s be honest, I would demand a boulevard. I don’t know why. I just think it sounds way cooler than drive.
I believe we should pay our fair share of taxes. That does not mean you make, more you pay more. I have never understood this philosophy: if you work really hard, and give up some things (sacrifice), then you should be forced to help those who choose not to give up things (sacrifice) to work 60-80 hours. Some people need help. Who? How about families who have a child that was diagnosed with leukemia? Or a family that lost everything when a grassfire destroyed their home with everything inside? Or how about a disabled Vet? These are just some examples, and yes, I have helped people like this most of my adult life, one way or another. My family helped them when we were kids (through church mainly). But the lazy people out there…who complain about 40 hours? Give me a break. Stop being soft. Work and contribute to the society so that your neighbor can have a road to drive on.
Rant over…maybe. The point is, if you work hard, why should you give more money to a government who doesn’t listen to you? Remember when they said, let’s go fix those bridges? Or let’s give marijuana money to the schools? How’s all that going, so far? By the way, marijuana money to the schools should have helped our property taxes go down. That’s utopia. But instead, they just keep on spending more than their credit cards allow. (Government credit card = Debt Ceiling for those of you who are newer to this newsletter.) The more they take, the more they will spend over the limit. I don’t know if you are a good budgeter or not…or maybe you’ve even owned a company. Once you are over budget for too long, it’s adios to you. Why should the government be any different? It’s just a huge service (non-production machine)…who is way out of balance. I don’t know a single underwriter who would put their stamp of approval on it.
Rant over…maybe. Well, new rant! Why do I hate the government so much? The cloud (not the ones in the sky) doesn’t have enough space for all that info. I’ll just leave this here…
First of all, they said…what crisis? But that was AFTER they sold their stock shares BEFORE we knew SVB was happening. So maybe you lost money in the bank or maybe you lost ground on your regional stocks. Good news! Our leaders didn’t! Phew! Thank God our leaders new something in advance…and didn’t rip money away from you. Or did they? There is only so much money…and when they sold…maybe your portfolio picked up a buy order…and then your stock tanked. Big business is the problem? Government is the first problem. By the way, the NY Times allegedly broke this story. I’m just as shocked as you are. Maybe even the fiscally left is getting annoyed. Well welcome to the party. I’m already 6 scotches deep.
To go along with the banking crisis…yes, I have a chart! In terms of total assets, it could be worse. But then I notice that we are in 3rd place with 2…2…banks. In ’08, $514.9 billion in assets came from 157 failed banks. If this goes deeper into regional banks, holy crap are we in deep sh*t.
This next article, from The WSJ, was eye opening…
Right?! Who the hell is still getting DVD’s in the mail? I didn’t even know that was still a thing. No extra charts for this one. But I would note that I check the mail once a week…maybe. So by the time I realized a DVD was there, it would have to go back. Now I’m wondering, does the Library have books on tape still? My young readers are like, what’s a library? God help us.
Speaking of not knowing what’s going on…the Fed is still talking about Rate increases. While the Fed did mention the word recession in their last meeting (meeting minutes came out last week), inflation is not where it needs to be. But I was thinking, they think it’s a mild recession. Mild. Is that like inflation being transitory? There is no one behind the wheel of the Fed semi-truck. That’s a problem. Question for you…have you ever cut off a semi-truck while sitting in traffic? Stop doing that. If that semi has paper on it…and it’s full, that's 40 tons. It may not seem like a lot to the ancient Egyptians when they built the pyramids (Aliens!), but if will pancake your fluffy SUV with you inside. Now imagine no one was at the wheel of this full semi and there’s a curve coming up. That’s our Federal Reserve. Yikes!
That all said…their slow down in jobs may finally be catching up. Jobless claims ticked up…and continuing claims did as well. So that is a good sign for a slowdown. I’m not expecting a positive number at the next jobs report due out May 5th. How about that existing home sales? That looks scary? Not to me. Why? Because I know there are severe inventory problems. So that is more of an inventory problem than a lack of demand. Need a house? Call me!
10yr: today’s view is a full year back. The really low rates are a distant past now. We are near the lower end of the past 9 months…but I’d really like to revisit those lows from August. It’s coming. Like the ol’ cat meme, hang in there.
MBS: Ugly couple of weeks…but we can’t just go straight up. We do need to get above those moving averages. Hopefully back above that will spark lower rates…the ones we have been waiting for this whole time.
At the end of the day, I’m all for paying taxes. I just don’t think people who work hard to get to an elevated level should have to eventually pay 70% in taxes. I already help people in need…I don’t need anyone in the Oval Office telling me what to do with my money. That person can…and then I can give them a middle finger. This is America. We should go back to acting like it. First up? Government. Stay out of my business…and you can keep your digital currency ideas. Shove it.
Originating Branch Manager