Updated: Aug 31
Happy Market Update!
First, congrats to everyone. We made it. The President has finally signed off on the end of Covid. I didn’t know he was a scientist, but he officially says we are no longer in an emergency. I’m still waiting for that “winter of death”. Did I miss it…or is it still ahead of us? I can’t remember. I’m sure I’ll get lectured about it again soon…since Bill Gates keeps referring to the “next” pandemic. Didn’t see the media report this ending? Of course, you didn’t. This is directly from the White House website:
This did bring up a sad ending in my history too. The Hostess Chocolate Pudding Pie. Whatever happened to those? It feels like it’s been a life of death without grabbing one at the 7-eleven all these years.
Anyway, we got jobs last Friday while the stock market was closed. The jobs created came in line…but it was the hours worked that was interesting. Ave hours worked dropped. There is some conversation that rather than lay people off…they are being asked to work fewer hours or take a pay cut. Just keep kicking the can. You can’t stop a downhill rolling boulder with a doorstop.
Worried about your deposits at banks? You can thank Chaz Vaughn, a Loan Officer in our branch, for the graph. It's hard to see, but yikes. Nice going, Chaz.
From @MFHoz: I thought this was an interesting chart. As you can see, for the most part, the S&P and NFCI move inversely to each other. And with that recent large move up in NFCI, but S&P lagging…do we have a large correction coming? Or will this time be different?
From another Twitter account, this shows some potential for a drop. However, it doesn’t have the same move during the great recession. So maybe this is a non-event this time? Or maybe we need to keep protecting ourselves?
You are probably wondering…what’s that 10yr-3mo chart doing? Well, it’s at -1.67. this chart is from Jan of 2022. But who cares about that. We have been negative since Oct-Nov of 2022. That’s 6 months everyone…and it’s at its lowest level…sloping down. Yikes. And the lowest since reporting on this from the early 1980s. Lowest I can find on record before was -0.77 in Dec 2000. We are more than twice as low. But we will not have a recession? Come on.
Meanwhile…how are you doing out there? Feeling the pinch yet? No?…it’s coming. Don’t kill the messenger. Here are some recent averages on rates. That credit card debt, by the way, $1T. But if Congress can raise their limit, then I am here to vote unanimously for the Republic of Tim to raise my limit. Meeting convened.
And for my weekly, it may not be that bad, chart?
10yr: this chart just annoys the crap out of me. We got down below that 3.36 level, but now we are right back above it. The jobs report from this past Friday didn’t help. But today’s candlestick is a doji, which typically means a reverse in the trend…so hopefully, right back down.
MBS: 3 month chart. While I don’t like the action over the past few days, that is still looking like an upward trend. We get CPI tomorrow (Wednesday), so we’ll see how that helps…or not. Lock for protection. Up is good for lower rates here.
I’ll miss next week as I will be out on vacation. Sike! It’s spring season! And hey, we are licensed in 47 states and DC. Shameless plug? Well, I never do it. So here: We would be honored to help any of your friends, family, coworkers, people you don’t like, neighbors you want to move. Please keep us in mind for just about anywhere in the country. The 3 states we don’t have, yet? NY, NC, and UT. But we have referral friends in those states. So let us help! Please!
Originating Branch Manager