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Mixed Signals

Updated: Sep 6, 2023

Happy Market Update!

Jackson has another swim meet this Saturday. Already. This time in The Springs at the HQ for the US Olympic Team. Hold on, I’m being handed a note. Oh. Never mind. The same place as last time. But I will sell tickets! If you are bored, and you have $50…I have a ticket for you to watch. Wait, I’m being handed another note. I guess it’s free to watch. (sigh) Moving on…

Speaking of sports, does anyone really think Derek Carr is worth $150m over 4 years? If you don’t know who that is, former Raiders QB. A lot of non-love for him in my neck of the woods. Sports is out of control. Pitcher Justin Verlander for 2 years and $86.6m with the Mets. Is anyone really worth all this money floating around?

What else is ridiculous (beyond me selling tickets to watch my 4-year-old swim)? How about how Samantha Power stating that US and Russia in a position (meaning in Europe)- In case you don't know, she is the head of the United States Agency for International Development. I’m sorry, I thought this war was Ukraine and Russia. She does say they are fighting it, but come on. You should check out her CNN interview. I bet this is exactly what was being said in the 1960s about Vietnam. We should not be taking this lightly. I’m all for democracy. But we can’t be told to stop patrolling the world and then be required to save it. The hypocrisy from DC is ridiculous.

China is starting to rev up their threats too. Here’s an example: "The United States' perception and views of China are seriously distorted," said Qin, an aide to President Xi Jinping. "It regards China as its primary rival and the most consequential geopolitical challenge. This is like the first button in the shirt being put wrong." Now, I’ve put on a shirt button wrong before. You just look dumb. I feel like we are flexing our muscles at a time when we haven’t been working out too much. I don’t know why this administration thinks anyone is afraid of them. Spoiler…I don’t think they are at all. That’s a huge problem if you want to be the “leader of the free world”. I’m not saying back down, but we need to find some common ground or else face another WW or Vietnam. None of which I am interested in seeing. But maybe I’ll buy some defense stocks.

And why am I not interest in seeing it? I’ve got plenty to worry about. Remember, I work in the housing industry:

Mortgage Applications are lower than they were during the “Housing Crisis” or “Great Recession”. You pick how you want to explain that timeframe. Then there is this report (only going back to 1986, so not engulfing the last inflationary period of the late 70s-early 80s).

Yesterday Oil hit $80 again. We seem to be in a tight, sideways trading range. Powell is speaking now…so I’m guessing this might have something to do with the big drop today so far. But oil moving to $120? Not yet. Moving to $50? Not yet. Time will tell.

I thought this next chart was interesting. The yellow is the Nasdaq and the purple is an inverted US 10yr (that we watch here religiously). What I notice is that these move in tandem for a bit…then have a wide divergence. So what happens next? Does the inverted 10yr meet the Nasdaq or vice versa? Good be good for stocks one way and bad for mortgages. Or good for mortgages and bad for stocks? Time will tell. “May” is what I hear from the talking heads. Stop watching CNBC, for the love of God, people. They don’t really tell you anything.

Lastly, here is some potential good news (if we believe inflation peaked which might mean ignoring producer prices):

10yr: I don’t like this for interest rates…still. We built the base here, tried to break it yesterday and we went back up. Today, still above it. Consolidation above a level like our 3.91-ish, is called support. It holds up (support). That level above is the 4.25 area. Enough already! Bleh. Lock!

MBS: Just ugly sideways, uglier now with our lower lows the past week. Lock. This does not show a lot of potential moving up. Powell is speaking about more needed. Maybe he is suggesting we move to 50bps instead of 25bps today? Bond market thought so weeks ago.

Something I saw this morning on Twitter from Quran 2:286, “Allah does not lay a responsibility on anyone beyond his capacity”. I love this quote. I’m not Muslim, and honestly, have not spent a lot of time researching it. But Mohammed and Jesus sound like, well, not really bad guys. You don’t have to follow them, but maybe we should listen sometimes. This is a strong quote I will keep in mind on my bad days. Get stronger, and we can be burdened with more. I’ll just go ahead and get ready for it.

Tim Lindsey

Originating Branch Manager

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